Fuente del artículo: State House News Service
Article By: Chris Lisinski

Departures Don’t Show Up in Improving Unemployment Rate

OCT. 9, 2020…..The number of Massachusetts workers counted as unemployed dropped by more than 250,000 over the past two months, a decline of more than a third that helped the state escape from a short streak of owning the worst jobless rate in the country.

Despite gains in total employment in the past two months, the Massachusetts labor force is shrinking, raising concerns about workers who have given up on finding employment amid the COVID recession. [Graphic: Chris Lisinski/SHNS]

But the improving jobs numbers and unemployment rate likely mask deeper, more lasting damage at both the state and federal level: many people are dropping out of the workforce altogether, hinting that some — particularly women, who disproportionately fill caretaker roles — have given up attempts to find employment amid slow hiring and uncertainty about the COVID-19 health outlook.

“It’s a significant problem,” Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President and CEO Eric Rosengren said in a speech on Thursday. “The longer the pandemic goes on, the more you’re going to see people leaving the labor force, not only because they can’t find a job, but because they have to care for either elderly parents, people that are sick because of the pandemic, or children that are not able to go to school because schools have been closed and there is not availability of daycare.”

The trend, according to economist Alicia Sasser Modestino, indicates that the recent improvement in the state’s unemployment situation might be “not as rosy as it might seem.”

Between January and August, the working-age population in Massachusetts grew 13,400, according to data published by state labor officials based on a household survey. In that same span, the labor force — which counts both people who are employed and those who are unemployed but actively seeking work — shrunk by 290,000.

The drop was not limited to the earlier days of the COVID-19 crisis, when job cuts were severe. In July and August, a span in which the employed population grew and the unemployed population shrunk, the labor force declined by 138,500 — more than the 114,000 jobs added.

While both Massachusetts and the country as a whole have seen workers depart the market, the trends have taken different patterns.

Nationally, the rate of working-age adults participating in the labor force has been slowly but steadily climbing, reaching 61.7 percent in August after dropping to 60.2 percent in April. In Massachusetts, the rate fell to 60.3 percent in April, rebounded to 65.1 percent in June, and then fell back down again to 62.6 percent in August, household survey labor data show.

“We seem to be moving in the opposite direction from the country in terms of the number of people who are participating in the labor force, which means that our improvement in the unemployment rate is maybe not as rosy as it might seem,” Modestino, who is associate director of the Dukakis Center for Urban and Regional Policy at Northeastern University, told the News Service. “If some of that improvement is coming from people dropping out of the labor force, that’s not how we usually like to improve the unemployment rate during a recession.”

Both the fluctuating pattern and the scale of the changes are unusual. In general, the labor force shrinks during recessions and grows during expansions, but — like so much else about the pandemic — this economic slowdown is unprecedented.

Alan Clayton-Matthews, another Northeastern professor who is a senior research associate at the Dukakis Center, said the more acute labor-force changes in recent months reflect the new reality of the pandemic.

“In some sectors, you know you can’t get a job right now,” Clayton-Matthews said in an interview. “In a normal recession, you might have stayed in the labor force, but in this one where, because of COVID, there’s a virtual certainty that you’re not going to be able to get a job, you drop out of the labor force.”

Another factor, he said, was the now-expired increase in unemployment aid offered through federal programs to blunt the impact of massive layoffs.

While experts said the volatility in the labor force figures raises red flags, they stressed that the state-level data do not offer a clear picture of why workers have departed.

Some could have opted to halt working over health concerns, some could have resigned themselves to not finding a job in the current strained economy, some might need to shift their focus to caretaking, and some might have simply retired during the pandemic.

Many experts agree, though, that the employment impacts have been disproportionately concentrated among people of color, who are more likely to work low-wage jobs prone to disruption, and among women, who often perform a larger share of parenting and caretaking duties.

A survey Modestino conducted found that 13 percent of working parents either reduced their hours or lost their jobs because they had to take on child care duties during the pandemic. The effects were more concentrated among women, she said.

“Among women who became unemployed during the pandemic, 25 percent of them said it was solely due to child care,” Modestino said.

In February, about 31 percent of Massachusetts claimants seeking unemployment benefits were women, according to Modestino. By July, that rate had jumped to more than 56 percent, “a tremendous shift.”

A similar trend is occurring nationally. Between February and September, the percent of men aged 25 to 54 participating in the labor force dropped 1.6 percentage points, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data based on the Current Population Survey. For women in the same age range, the labor force participation rate dropped 2.8 percentage points over that span.

“In a pandemic, where many schools are closing, when many people in the 25 to 54 age bracket are having children, many families have to make a choice of whether or not they can continue to work because they have children at home,” Rosengren said in his remarks. “Sometimes, that is borne by the husband, but frequently it is borne by the wife.”

The long-term effects of discouraged workers may not become clear for months or years, particularly amid enormous uncertainty over the public health outlook.

Key questions remain unanswered, such as when consumers will feel comfortable resuming pre-pandemic routines, when a vaccine or treatment will be available, and whether Congress will approve another stimulus package — that appears less likely after President Donald Trump said Tuesday he would withdraw from negotiations.

Clayton-Matthews described the risk of federal aid falling through as “the biggest sword of Damocles hanging over us.”

“The economy seems to be weakening, and without another stimulus, I don’t see how it’s going to get by until there’s a vaccine widely available,” he said. “We could see a prolonged recession if there’s not more support for incomes like there was in the beginning of this pandemic.”

Join us live online with Congressman James McGovern and Congresswoman Lori Trahan on October 8, 2020 starting at 12:00 p.m. for our annual Congressional program. This is a great opportunity to hear from them on the progress on Capital Hill on important issues, including PPP forgiveness and the recovery bill. Members will also have an opportunity to submit questions. Matt Bruun of Fitchburg State University will serve as the emcee and moderator. 

The cost is just $10 for members. Pre-registration is required. For more information or to register, please visit www.NorthCentralMass.com. Thank you to our Sponsor Fitchburg State University!

Fuente del artículo: State House News Service
Article By: Katie Lannan

OCT. 1, 2020…..U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Thursday said she’s optimistic that Republicans and Democrats can reach a deal on the next round of coronavirus stimulus funding and that she hopes to bring a bill to the floor for a vote later in the day.

“Right now, we are at the table discussing how we can go forward with a possible COVID bill,” Pelosi told reporters Thursday morning.

She said, “We’re hopeful we can reach agreement because the needs of the American people are so great, but there has to be a recognition that it takes money to do that, and it takes the right language to make sure it is done right.”

Pelosi and Treasurer Secretary Steven Mnuchin met for 90 minutes Tuesday in hopes of finding an accord, and a potential Wednesday evening House vote on the legislation was scrapped to allow time for more talks.

“We’ve had constructive conversations, Secretary Mnuchin and I, but they are not finished,” Pelosi said.

She said the two sides are “coming closer” on small business measures but “still way off in terms of state and local government.”

“We are coming closer on money for our health provisions in the bill,” Pelosi said. “It’s just a question of the language.”

Budget writers on Beacon Hill, who have not yet produced a full spending plan for this year while the state runs on temporary budgets, have been looking toward Washington to see if any additional federal aid emerges.

In filing a spending bill to close the books on fiscal year 2020 yesterday, Gov. Charlie Baker wrote that while “the need for public services continues unabated…the extent of federal support remains uncertain.”

Mnuchin, in a Wednesday evening Fox Business appearance, said he brought Pelosi “a very fair proposal that provides a lot of relief for hard-working Americans that have been hurt by this virus, particularly many of the small businesses, kids and jobs that are impacted by this.”

He said this is the first time the two sides have “seriously reengaged” in several weeks. He said President Trump “instructed us to come up significantly, so we have come up from the trillion dollar deal that we had been working on earlier.”

“We’re not going to do a $2.2 trillion deal,” Mnuchin said. “The good news is, the speaker has come down from her $3.4 trillion deal. If there’s a fair compromise, we’re prepared to do it.”

In coming up with lower price tags, Pelosi said the House Democrats are “not undermining our priorities but realigning some things in terms of the timetable, how long they would last.” She said a vote is important “for people to see that we completely identify with the concerns that they have and how we have allocated the resources necessary to get the job done.”

Brothers Thomas and Richard Bagley, president and executive vice president, respectively, of Anderson, Bagley, & Mayo (ABM) Insurance Agency, Inc. combine their unique and personalized service to the North Central Massachusetts area with approximately 100 years of tradition in the insurance industry.

ABM Insurance is a family-owned business, and grew through word of mouth and the acquisition of other insurance agencies, which helped to expand on the business. Rich and Tom’s grandfather became involved in the 1930s, and their father took over in the 1970s. In 2006, they took over ABM Insurance, practicing what they preach – providing efficiencies to clients, but with a personal touch.

ABM Insurance is the largest, independent, and locally-owned insurance agency in North Central Massachusetts, providing both personal and business insurances from Workers’ Compensation to Home Owners’ Insurance.

“We want to provide the best insurance for our clients’ needs,” they said. “We especially have a lot of close relationships with local and family-owned business owners, and want to meet the needs of any individual in the area.”

In a recent Arbella Insurance article, Rich and Tom were recognized for their commitment to charity within the community.  ABM gives to a wide range of charities every year, asking their employees where they feel is the greatest need. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, instead of holiday parties, the Bagleys are utilizing that budget and putting it toward charitable purposes.

Although walk-in appointments have been greatly reduced to the pandemic, ABM ensures that they work closely with customers to understand the availability with online transactions and communications.

“Fortunately, most of the work we do can be done remotely and safely from home,” said Tom. “We’ve always tried to invest in technology and keep up to date with it. People’s lives are busy, but it’s something that is also convenient and useful for them.”

Tom and Rich feel that the North Central Massachusetts Chamber of Commerce is a great advocate for local-owned business in the area, connecting unique people their skill sets together through the community.

“North Central Massachusetts is full of unique people, identities, and skill sets that set us apart from other counties,” the Bagleys said. “The Chamber is great at making sure that that difference is recognized and promoted.”

ABM Insurance is a proud member of the North Central Massachusetts Chamber of Commerce and has four different locations in the North Central Massachusetts area: Leominster, Gardner, Westminster, and Princeton. They can be reached at 800.783.5133 and to learn more information on ABM Insurance, visit their website at www.abminsurance.com.